Pearcedale (about 38.203° S, 145.221° E) sits on the Mornington Peninsula between Western Port and Port Phillip. For a single internally consistent observational series, this report uses BOM Cerberus station 086361 (38.36° S, 145.18° E; 13 m), about 18 km to the south and strongly exposed to the same Western Port maritime regime.
The Bureau's current long-term Cerberus statistics give an annual mean maximum of 19.2°C, mean minimum of 9.9°C and mean rainfall of 705.9 mm. That is the coastal baseline against which the 2022–2026 8-HOUSE record is assessed.
Method: BOM daily Cerberus evapotranspiration tables were mapped onto the actual 8-HOUSE year beginning 23 September. Sep 18–22 and Feb 29 sit outside the ordinary 360-day House grid. Newer June–August 2026 temperature/rainfall values come from BOM Daily Weather Observations; ETo is left blank once the available ETo archive ends.
Long-term mean max
19.2°C
BOM Cerberus climatology
2025 thermal anomaly
+0.9°C
20.1°C annual mean maximum
2025 rainfall deficit
111.0 mm
16% below BOM 2025 reference
Coldest Mandel mean
4.2°C
Mean minimum · M43 · 20 Jun–4 Jul 2024
Thermal Record
The real Pearcedale 100-Mandel frame
Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in true 15-day 8-HOUSE blocks. Completed windows use observed Cerberus station data; the current Mandel is marked separately and future positions remain blank.
BOM daily observations
All M1–M100 positions use the same fixed House boundaries and coverage rules. Observed BOM station data replace the earlier generated seasonal curve, while future positions remain deliberately unfilled.
House × Cycle
Yearly thermal comparison
Mean maximum temperature by House. The 2024–25 cycle is the warmest complete cycle in this observational window, with its strongest expansion through The Surge, The Crest and The Hardening.
Thermal Concentration
Intensity heatmap
House-scale heat by 8-HOUSE cycle. Empty cells in the current cycle have not yet completed.
Seasonal Shape
House fingerprint
Cycle 1 (2022–23) versus Cycle 3 (2024–25). The later cycle is warmer through every House except a near-flat winter core, with the clearest expansion from late spring into autumn.
2025 Moisture Signal
The desiccation
BOM's published 2025 annual summary records 605.2 mm at Cerberus against a 716.2 mm reference average used for that report: about 84% of normal rainfall.
Structural Mechanics
The 8-HOUSE climate frame
The calendar uses eight named 45-day Houses anchored to 23 September, with three 15-day Mandels inside each House. This creates a consistent 360-day observational frame across every year in the report.
8 × 45 = 360
H1
The Quickening
Spring ignition
Rapid warming under a still-active maritime spring rainfall regime.
H2
The Surge
Late spring expansion
Solar input rises quickly, but Western Port continues to suppress the strongest daytime extremes.
H3
The Crest
Summer height
The warmest part of the coastal cycle, with marine air and sea breezes moderating the strongest daytime extremes.
H4
The Hardening
Late-summer endurance
Warm soils and dry spells can persist into March even as the marine buffer limits average maxima.
H5
The Turning
Autumn shift
Daytime warmth fades while coastal nights remain relatively mild under continuing maritime influence.
H6
The Falling
Cooling phase
Evaporative demand falls and frontal rainfall becomes increasingly important.
H7
The Deep
Winter depth
The coldest House, with marine exposure moderating the severity of overnight cooling.
H8
The Dreaming
Pre-spring emergence
Increasing solar energy meets persistent winter moisture before the September reset.
Mandel · 15 daysTemperature is averaged and rainfall/ETo are summed within each 15-day block.
House · 45 daysThree Mandels form one House, preserving identical seasonal windows from year to year.
Liminal · Sep 18–22Five reset days sit outside the 360-grid; Feb 29 is also excluded in leap years.
Hydrology
The maritime water balance
Pearcedale's coastal regime is shaped by maritime moisture, frontal rainfall and comparatively moderated evaporative demand. Even within that setting, the observational record shows a strong drying transition across these cycles.
Wet Cycle 1 · 2022–23Available Cerberus observations total about 803.6 mm rainfall, with a 19.02°C cycle mean maximum.
Warm/Dry Cycle 3 · 2024–25Mean maximum rises to 20.51°C while observed rainfall falls to about 508.4 mm; available ETo totals about 1070.9 mm.
Peak Mandel · 27.3°CM60 (7–21 Mar 2025) has the highest completed 15-day mean maximum in this 100-position series.
Cycle 3 Water Balance
Rainfall versus ETo
M49–M72, covering 23 Sep 2024–17 Sep 2025. Hydrology points with less than 80% daily coverage are left blank.
Daily Range
Diurnal range distribution
The nearby marine heat reservoir helps compress Pearcedale's day–night temperature swing. This plot tracks each Mandel's observed mean maximum minus observed mean minimum.
Max − Min
Regional Drivers
Why Pearcedale behaves differently
WP
Western Port thermal bufferNearby coastal water absorbs and releases heat more slowly than land, suppressing summer daytime extremes and supporting milder winter nights.
MB
Two-bay maritime settingPearcedale sits between Western Port and Port Phillip, so sea breezes, humid marine air and frontal changes frequently interrupt continental heat.
ET
Moderated evaporative demandThe Cerberus ETo series shows how maritime humidity and cooler coastal conditions restrain atmospheric water demand, even during the warm/dry 2024–25 cycle.
Current Cycle · 2025–26
Observed through early August
M93, covering 20 July–3 August 2026, is the last fully completed Mandel and records a 14.65°C mean maximum and 6.81°C mean minimum. M94 begins on 4 August and remains partial.
93completed Mandels
1partial Mandel
6future positions blank
No synthetic weather has been inserted to force the series to M100. The BOM ETo archive used here currently ends at 31 May 2026; June–4 August temperature and rainfall are extended from BOM Daily Weather Observations, while later ETo remains blank. Rainfall/ETo chart points require at least 80% daily coverage.
