100-Mandel observational report · Central Victoria · 2022–2026
Regional Profile
Bendigo in the Victorian interior
Bendigo Airport (36.74° S, 144.33° E; 209 m) sits in central Victoria's Goldfields bioregion. Its inland setting produces pronounced seasonal contrasts, with hot summer days, cold winter nights and a large annual and diurnal temperature range.
The Bureau's long-term station statistics give an annual mean maximum of 21.3°C, mean minimum of 8.1°C and mean rainfall of 515.2 mm. January's mean maximum is 30.4°C; July's is 12.7°C.
Method: daily BOM Bendigo Airport evapotranspiration tables were mapped onto the actual 8-HOUSE year beginning 23 September. Sep 18–22 and Feb 29 sit outside the ordinary 360-day House grid.
Long-term mean max
21.3°C
BOM Bendigo Airport climatology
2025 thermal anomaly
+1.0°C
22.3°C annual mean maximum
2025 rainfall deficit
114.5 mm
22% below BOM annual reference
Deep-winter Mandel
1.7°C
Mean minimum · M93 · 20 Jul–3 Aug
Thermal Record
The real Bendigo 100-Mandel frame
Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in true 15-day 8-HOUSE blocks. Completed windows use observed station data; the current Mandel is marked separately and future positions remain blank.
BOM daily observations
The M1–M100 frame uses fixed House boundaries and coverage rules throughout. Bendigo values are calculated directly from BOM daily observations, with incomplete and future positions left visibly unfilled.
House × Cycle
Yearly thermal comparison
Mean maximum temperature by House. The 2024–25 cycle is the strongest complete warm cycle in this observational window.
Thermal Concentration
Intensity heatmap
House-scale heat by 8-HOUSE cycle. Empty cells in the current cycle have not yet completed.
Seasonal Shape
House fingerprint
Cycle 1 (2022–23) versus Cycle 3 (2024–25). The later cycle expands strongly through the hot-season Houses.
2025 Moisture Signal
The desiccation
BOM's 2025 annual summary records 396.2 mm at Bendigo Airport against a 510.7 mm reference average: roughly 78% of normal rainfall.
Structural Mechanics
The 8-HOUSE climate frame
The calendar uses eight named 45-day Houses anchored to 23 September, with three 15-day Mandels inside each House. Every observation is aligned to this consistent 360-day annual frame.
8 × 45 = 360
H1
The Quickening
Spring ignition
Rapid warming, lengthening days and highly variable spring rainfall.
H2
The Surge
Late spring expansion
Heat begins to outrun rainfall; atmospheric demand climbs sharply.
H3
The Crest
Summer height
Bendigo's strongest daytime heat and highest ETo typically cluster here.
H4
The Hardening
Late-summer endurance
Persistent heat, dry soils and wide day–night ranges remain common.
H5
The Turning
Autumn shift
Daytime heat eases while clear inland nights cool rapidly through the autumn transition.
H6
The Falling
Cooling phase
Evaporative demand collapses while frost risk and winter rainfall increase.
H7
The Deep
Winter depth
The coldest House; clear inland nights can fall below freezing.
H8
The Dreaming
Pre-spring emergence
Cold nights persist while solar energy and afternoon temperatures begin climbing.
Mandel · 15 daysTemperature is averaged and rainfall/ETo are summed within each 15-day block.
House · 45 daysThree Mandels form one House, preserving identical seasonal windows from year to year.
Liminal · Sep 18–22Five reset days sit outside the 360-grid; Feb 29 is also excluded in leap years.
Hydrology
The inland atmospheric thirst
Bendigo combines modest annual rainfall with very high evaporative demand. Agriculture Victoria lists roughly 544 mm annual rainfall and 1,400 mm annual evaporation for Bendigo, producing a persistent structural moisture deficit.
Wet Cycle 1 · 2022–23Available BOM rows total about 713 mm rainfall through the first complete 8-HOUSE cycle.
Hot/Dry Cycle 3 · 2024–25Mean maximum rises to 23.15°C while available rainfall falls to about 419 mm and ETo rises to 1496 mm.
Peak Mandel · 32.7°CM57 (21 Jan–4 Feb) has the highest completed 15-day mean maximum in the series.
Cycle 3 Water Balance
Rainfall versus ETo
M49–M72, covering 23 Sep 2024–17 Sep 2025. Hydrology points with less than 80% daily coverage are left blank.
Daily Range
Diurnal range distribution
Bendigo's lack of a nearby marine heat sink produces a strong day–night temperature swing. The plot tracks each Mandel's mean maximum minus mean minimum.
Max − Min
Regional Drivers
Why Bendigo behaves differently
IN
Inland continentalityAt roughly 150 km north-west of Melbourne, Bendigo is strongly influenced by inland air masses. Hot air is only weakly moderated and clear nights cool efficiently.
GF
Goldfields uplandsThe Goldfields bioregion consists of dissected uplands and ridges with relatively poor soils, in a temperate 400–700 mm rainfall climate generally wetter in winter.
ET
Evaporation exceeds rainfallAgriculture Victoria's farm-water reference gives Bendigo about 544 mm annual rainfall against 1,400 mm annual evaporation, making moisture deficit structural rather than exceptional.
Current Cycle · 2025–26
Deep winter, observed—not projected
The current 8-HOUSE cycle remains deliberately unfinished. The lowest completed 15-day mean minimum in this series is 1.67°C in M93 during late July / early August 2026.
93completed Mandels
1partial Mandel
6future positions blank
No synthetic weather has been inserted to force the series to M100. Missing station observations also remain missing; temperature means use available observations, while rainfall/ETo chart points require at least 80% daily coverage.
